Publications

This page lists publications that include one or more members of our team (Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai) as authors.  The “Related Work” page shows work by other scholars.  Most publications can be downloaded by clicking on the title.

The Economics of Analyzing the TPP
Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
Submission to USITC Investigation 105-001 (Hearings on the Trans-Pacific Partnership), 2016.

Shows that economic adjustment mechanisms assumed in micro analysis remain vigorous and contrasts the merits of long-run microeconomic analysis with short-run macroeconomic analysis in estimating the effects of the TPP. 

The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates
Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
Working Paper No. 16-2
Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2016.

Estimates the effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) using a comprehensive, quantitative trade model, updating results reported in Petri, Plummer, and Zhai (2012) with recent data and information from the agreement.

Global Economic Prospects, Chapter 4: Potential Macroeconomic Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, Franziska Ohnsorge, Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
Pages 219-236.
World Bank, January 2016.

Special chapter of this World Bank annual flagship report examines the global implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, with special attention to effects on developing economies.

The FTAAP Opportunity: A Report to ABAC
Peter A. Petri, Christopher Findlay, Michael G. Plummer and Ganeshan Wignaraja 
Pages 219-236.
ABAC, October 2015.

This report to the APEC Business Advisory Council builds on business experiences to examine why the FTAAP is so important, what its contributions might be, and how it can be realized.

Economic Implications of Deeper South Asian–Southeast Asian Integration: A CGE Approach
Wignaraja, G., Morgan, P., Plummer, M. G., & Zhai, F.
Asian Economic Papers, 2015

Estimates gains from integration across South Asia and Southeast Asia. If the two regions succeed in dropping inter-regional tariffs, reducing non-tariff barriers by 50 percent, and decreasing inter-regional trade costs by 15 percent, welfare in South Asia and Southeast Asia would rise by 8.9 percent and 6.4 percent of GDP, respectively, by 2030.

Can RCEP and the TPP be pathways to FTAAP?
Peter A. Petri and Ali Abdul-Raheem
State of the Region, 2014
Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, 2014.

Trans-Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreements would be a valuable way-stations toward a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). The paper examines how an FTAAP negotiation could build on smaller agreements.

The Effects of a China-US Free Trade and Investment Agreement
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai
In Bergsten, C.F., Hufbauer G. C., and Miner, S. Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade Between China and the United States.
Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2014.

A China-US free trade agreement, although not likely to be concluded soon, would generate huge economic and political benefits. This paper estimates the income gains and sectoral adjustment implications implied by various scenarios of such an agreement.

The TPP, China and the FTAAP: The Case for Convergence
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai
Chapter 6 in Tang and Petri (2014) volume referenced below.

The enlargement of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement to include China would generate large benefits for China and the United States, approximating those from a region-wide Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific. 

New Directions in Asia-Pacific Economic Integration
Tang Guoqiang and Peter A. Petri, eds.
China National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation and U.S. Asia-Pacific Council
Honolulu: East-West Center, 2014.

The book contains essays by international experts on the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations and their consolidation into a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). 

Assessing the impact of ASEAN economic integration and on labour markets
Michael G. Plummer, Peter A. Petri and Fan Zhai
International Labour Organization, Asia-Pacific Working Paper Series September 2014. 68 pp.

The ASEAN Economic Community–intended to create free flow of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labour–would have varied effects on labor categorized by seven occupational categories and by gender.

ASEAN Centrality and the ASEAN-US Economic Relationship
Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
East-West Center Policy Studies 69, 2014. 75pp.

ASEAN seeks to strengthen its economic and political role through “centrality” in intraregional and external policy decisions. The United States could support this framework by pursuing deep relations with some ASEAN members while broadly assisting the region’s development.

The New Landscape of Trade Policy and Korea’s Choices
Peter A. Petri
Journal of East Asian Economic Integration, 17:4, pp. 333-359, December 2013.

Korea would gain significantly from a new FTA with China, but it also has a large stake in creating an inclusive, high-quality regional trading system by participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. 

The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai
Peterson Institute for International Economics and East-West Center
Policy Analyses in International Economics No. 98, November 2012.

A video of the book launch is here. If current Trans-Pacific and Asian trade negotiations are completed successfully, world income would rise by $295 billion per year on the Trans-Pacific track, $500 billion on the Asian track, and $1.9 trillion if the tracks merge. Adjustment burdens are significant but greatly outweighed by gains.

Asian and Trans-Pacific Initiatives in Regional Integration 
Peter A. Petri and Tri Thanh Vo
in Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, State of the Region 2012-2013, Chapter 3. Singapore: PECC. 34-41. 2012.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: Policy Implications 
Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Policy Brief PB12-16, June 2012.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement among nine countries could yield annual global income gains of $295 billion, including $78 billion for the US. To be viable, the TPP must offer opportunities for emerging-market and advanced economies, but should avoid provisions that jeopardize region-wide or global agreements in the future.

Competing Templates in Asia-Pacific Integration 
Peter A. Petri
in Gilbert Rozman, ed. Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies No. 23: Asia at a Tipping Point: Korea, the Rise of China and the Impact of Leadership Transition. Korea Economic Institute, Washington D.C. 227-245. 2012.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment 
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai
East-West Center Working Papers No. 119, October 24, 2011.

Trans-Pacific and Asian tracks of trade agreements would generate global economic gains (based on conventional models not including investment effects) of $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP.  The templates are “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game.

The ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis 
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai
Asian Economic Journal 26:2, 93–118. November 21, 2010.

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) could yield benefits similar to those of the European Union, amounting to 5.3% of the region’s GDP and more than twice that if, as expected, the AEC leads to free trade agreements with key external partners.

Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade
Fan Zhai 
Journal of Economic Integration 23:3, 575–604. September 2008.

Traditional CGE models fail to capture the extensive margin of trade and underestimate trade and welfare effects of trade policy changes. Using a Melitz (2003) framework with firm heterogeneity and fixed exporting costs, we find welfare and export gains twice as large as in the standard CGE model.

Preferential Trade Agreements in Asia: Alternative Scenarios of ‘Hub and Spoke’
Fan Zhai
Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa, June 2006.

Using a new CGE model with imperfect competition, increasing return to scale and heterogeneous firm, we explore the effects of alternative hub and spoke trade agreements in Asia. The simulations suggest that regional integration in the Asian context requires deep integration measures.